Just over six months ago, the DUP/Sinn Fein-led Executive came into existence. For many this alliance was both improbable and exhilarating. Devolved self-government was back but nobody pretended that the way ahead would be a bed of roses. In the last few weeks, there has been renewed speculation that both the killing of Paul Quinn in Monaghan and the gun attacks on of-duty members of the PSNI would put fresh strains on the continued existence of the Executive.
The Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC), confirmed that those who beat Paul Quinn to death last month across the border from south Armagh were IRA members “past or present, or associates”.
As I write, it appears that the Executive is not on t
he verge of self-destruction. The Quinn case is set to rumble but, unless there is hard evidence that the killing was sanctioned at the highest levels of the republican leadership, the DUP is unlikely to pull the plug on power-sharing with Sinn Fein. The bottom line is that the leaderships of both the DUP and Sinn Fein have invested so heavily in their present political strategy that they are very reluctant to see their efforts shattered so quickly.
The killing of Paul Quinn was speedily followed by the arrest of well-known republican Thomas (Slab) Murphy on completely unrelated charges. In the past, when the PSNI and Gardai carried out raids on Murphy’s property, there were choruses of protest from the republican leadership. This time the silence has been deafening, indicating, at the very least, a tactical change in the public pronouncements.
What, however, will the impact of an upsurge of attacks by dissident republicans like the gun attacks on off-duty policemen in Derry and Dungannon? Dissident republicans have answered Sinn Fein's pleas for co-operation with the police by threatening to kill anyone who did so. In terms of resuming armed struggle, it appears as though dissidents are flexing their muscles. The environment in which armed struggle may now be pursued has changed radically from the position that prevailed through much of the Troubles. I wonder if these changes are fully realized by those republicans who are opposed to Sinn Fein’s strategies. In the public mind the ‘Real IRA’ is associated with the Omagh bombing in 1998, when they tried to wreck the newly negotiated power-sharing settlement. The death toll was the greatest loss of life in a single Troubles bombing. But the tragedy strengthened support for the peace process and made dissident republicans all but pariahs, even within their own communities. Most dissident attacks since then have been sabotaged by police infiltration and what many suspect is information from other republicans.
Dissident republican spokespersons have recently re-iterated that they are not on ceasefire and remain committed to armed struggle in what they claim is their perceived strategy to break the union. While they may be able to mount operations there is no the remotest chance that armed struggle will achieve their stated objectives. What lies ahead for their members engaged in armed struggle is decades in prison or an early grave. Since Sinn Fein has moved away from militant republicanism and seems to have accepted the legitimacy of Northern Ireland and the institutions of the state, various dissident republican groups are seeking to directly challenge the party for the mantle of republicanism.
