A week in politics
'A week is a long time in politics' as Harold Wilson famously remarked in 1964 and I am sure these words have been ringing in the ears of Gordon Brown and his ministers and backbenchers as the Labour leader was forced into a humiliating climb-down over this well-laid plans for a General Election at the start of next month. From riding high in the opinion polls at the start of September, Labour now finds itself trailing the Tories.
A few weeks ago, as they gathered at the Winter Gardens in Blackpool, the Tories looked like a demoralised lot, awaiting their fate. They wanted an election just about as much as turkeys look forward to Christmas. The opinion polls had them trailing Labour by eleven points and David Cameron looked likely to follow in the steps of his ill-fated predecessors who had suffered electoral meltdown in the last decade. Some of Brown’s kitchen cabinet were saying that the Tories would be microwaved in a short campaign.
In one way, I was not at all surprised that Brown backed away from an election as the opinion polls, especially in the marginals, showed a Tory resurgence sparked by the announcement of tax cuts by Shadow Chancellor, George Osborne and a masterful conference performance by David Cameron. For a seasoned politician I was surprised that he didn’t see the Tory exocet missile on Inheritance Tax a mile off. The public has been left with the feeling that sure-footed Gordon has lost his way and his judgment is badly impaired.
As I see it, the momentum is now with the Conservative Party and Gordon Brown appears to be a lame-duck Premier after only a few months in the job. The government’s position has not been helped by its undue haste to adopt a raft of Tory polices in the last week and last Wednesday’s Prime Minister’s Question Time in the House of Commons was something of a disaster for Brown. Mind you, with the General Election parked until 2009 there is plenty to play for. The resurgence of the fortunes of the English rugby team have been mirrored in the political arena by the Conservatives. Momentum is very important in politics and had Gordon Brown called an election on 1November against a backdrop of England wining the Rugby World Cup, he might easily have lost the keys of 10 Downing Street.
A few weeks ago, protestors marched on Westminster in support of the Burmese opposition to the military junta. They doubtless passed the statue of Oliver Cromwell on their way to a delegation meeting with Gordon Brown at Downing Street. Now, Oliver Cromwell is an interesting historical figure when it comes to study of public opinion. The Battle of Worcester, the final battle of the English Civil War took place in September 1651. The Royalists were routed and as Cromwell victoriously rode through the town, one of his lieutenants told him that the people would gladly make him king. Cromwell is reputed to have dismissed the offer stating that public opinion was fickle and that the same crowd would gleefully hang him a week hence. I am sure that both Gordon Brown and David Cameron have heard of the story and both should take note.
What I have found quite surprising about New Labour has been the haste with which they have airbrushed Tony Blair, their most successful leader out of the frame. In so doing, Gordon Brown has taken the party backwards and the accusations of former civil servants that he was a control freak, nicknamed Stalin, rings ominously true.
Has the last few weeks told us much about new Toryism? For a number of years it has seemed that the party’s image was that of Victor Meldrew, the main character in the BBC1 sitcom ‘One Foot In The Grave.’ The appeal to middle Britain was virtually non-existent and Blair harvested the crop accordingly. In the last few weeks the Tories have re-invented themselves and are able to go to the electorate knowing the positives for which thy stand.
All of which neatly brings me back to the impact on local politics, if any, of the decision by Gordon Brown not to go to the country until 2009 at the earliest.
The first reaction of most of the local parties is undoubtedly one of relief. I didn’t hear any our local leaders calling on Brown to ‘bring it on.’ In fact, they were quite terrified of an election in November. Of course, the Assembly and Westminster parliament could use the time until the next General Election wisely by passing legislation to stop the flagrant double-jobbing. I do not expect the Assembly to introduce such legislation but maybe it will be on the order paper in the real parliament in London.
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Weather for Derry
Friday 10 February 2012
Today
Sunny spells
Temperature: 7 C to 12 C
Wind Speed: 17 mph
Wind direction: South east
Tomorrow
Cloudy
Temperature: 4 C to 10 C
Wind Speed: 9 mph
Wind direction: South
