COVID-19 'R' number in Derry/Strabane well below one two weeks after restrictions kick-in, says Prof. Ian Young

The 'R' number in Derry and Strabane is now well-below 1 with COVID-19 positive cases starting to fall almost two weeks after stricter restrictions were introduced in the area.
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That was the clear message from the Chief Scientific Adviser, Professor Ian Young, at an Executive press briefing this afternoon.

"There is, I think, a little chink of light in that the rate of increase of cases has begun to decline and that is likely to reflect the impact of the Northern Ireland-wide household restrictions and, more recently, the impact of the additional restrictions which were implemented in the Derry and Strabane area," he said.

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Prof. Young warned now is not the time for complacency. Across the north the seven-day rolling positivity rate for SARS-CoV-2 is still an extremely high 13 per cent or over. The World Health Organisation (WHO) classifies a geographic pandemic as 'out of control' once test positivity rises above five per cent.

The R rate is falling in Derry and Strabane.The R rate is falling in Derry and Strabane.
The R rate is falling in Derry and Strabane.

Prof. Young said he hoped the rate will begin to fall in the next two weeks but acknowledged that before then hospitals, which are already under 'very considerable pressure' will continue to see admissions rise.

The aim of the ongoing restrictions is to get the overall R rate for the north down from 1.4 to below 1 and as close to 0.7 as possible, he said.

"The virus is not equally spread across all of Northern Ireland and Derry and Strabane continues to have the highest number of cases per 100,000 of the population.

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"We can see how the cases in Derry and Strabane have been falling and continue to fall today," he said.

COVID-19 cases have started to fall.COVID-19 cases have started to fall.
COVID-19 cases have started to fall.

Prof. Young explained that this was related to local restrictions introduced in Derry two weeks ago.

"About ten days later we began to see a fall in the number of cases. That is more or less exactly what we expect whenever we put effective restrictions into place.

"That's mirrored by what has been happening to the value of R in the Derry and Strabane district. We don't routinely calculate R by separate local government district but in light of the extra measures in Derry and Strabane we have been following it closely.

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"The behaviour of the population began to change a few days before that [October 5] after the announcement of the new restrictions...R rose a little after the regulations came into effect but subsequently has been falling steadily and now the value of R in Derry and Strabane is significantly below one.

"We know that the restrictions which we put in place in Derry and Strabane and which have now been put in place across Northern Ireland work. We know they work if we adhere to them and follow them closely," said Prof. Young.

He warned, however, that now is not the time to take the foot of the pedal.

"That is not an indication that we should be complacent. It's rather the opposite. It's a sign of hope. The efforts of the population which is community leaders, which is those responsible for enforcement, and those responsible for business, are making, is making a real difference and if we continue to do it for the next four weeks then I am confident that cases in Derry and Strabane will continue to fall and will soon be at a level similar to the rest of Northern Ireland," he declared.

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