Independent proportional representation election algorithms throw up same Assembly poll predictions for Derry and the North

The SDLP would win four seats with Sinn Féin taking the fifth in Foyle if an Assembly election were to be called next week based on the results of the recent General Election.

Thursday, 9th January 2020, 12:09 pm
Election calculator.

The 'Journal' put the numbers from December's poll through two independent proportional representation calculators - one from the Graduate School Rhein-Neckar, the other from the University of Maryland - and both threw up the same results.

Putting the numbers polled by all parties across the North last month through the separate electoral algorithms, meanwhile, also delivered the exact same results.

Both the German and U.S. calculators predicted that the result of a fresh Assembly poll in February would be as follows: DUP 28 seats (no change from 2017), Sinn Féin 21 (-6), Alliance 15 (+7), SDLP 14 (+2), UUP 11 (+1) and Aontú 1 (+1).

These calculations are based solely on the results of the Westminster first-past-the-post election which was conducted on a basis much different to the single transferable vote system that will be used in a forthcoming Assembly elections if it called.

The computations do not factor in the reduced vote suffered by several parties in December due to their decisions not to run in various constituencies for tactical reasons.

And they don't account for transfer patterns or the relative strengths of parties and independents in different parts of the North.