Coronavirus: Second wave of COVID-19 expected in the north later this year, according to new model

An expert modelling study, which will inform intensive hospital planning for the forthcoming surge in COVID-19 cases in the north, plans for a second wave of the illness later in this year.
Second wave expected.Second wave expected.
Second wave expected.

The modelling team has indicated that the peak of the first wave of the epidemic is expected between April 6 and April 20.

Details of the study where released by the Health Minister Robin Swann on Wednesday.

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The modelling team authors emphasise that the work is not a prediction or forecast, rather a model for planning purposes; and also state: “It is assumed that current restrictions remain in place for the foreseeable future.

"When the current restrictions are relaxed, there will be a second wave. Future modelling will focus on the size and shape of this depending on how/when restrictions are relaxed or re-introduced.

"This will remain the case until there is substantial population immunity either as a result of recovery from infection or successful vaccination.”

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