Dr Black: This is where it begins to affect us all

An unknown virus spreading rapidly around the world, no known vaccine or cure, treatment being developed as we went along, a national lockdown, schools closed, bars and restaurants closed, everyone remaining at home.

And, initially, that worked; one clear instruction – stay at home, protect the NHS. The numbers in the first phase were not as bad as feared and, over the summer, we had cautious optimism; we had done well, we could relax the restrictions, eat out, enjoy the better weather and, in September, children returned to school.

However, we moved too soon, gradually we began to see the numbers creep up, jump up and, finally, explode. We went from the lowest numbers in the UK to the highest, and with numbers well above the Republic of Ireland.

The past few months have seen us swing from light restrictions, to some restrictions, to light restrictions, to more restrictions and, on Friday last, we essentially opened up again. The impact on the health service of this latest loosening of restrictions will not be seen for a few weeks, long after the last cracker has been pulled and the decorations are down.

Deciding to ease restrictions was a pragmatic decision by the Executive; they knew that everyone was feeling the strain and were likely to mix anyway - so the hope is that, by providing some guidance, we will all think twice and, whereas, in previous years we may have enjoyed 10 family members or more around the table on Christmas Day, and indeed throughout the festive period, the hope now is that there will be more caution and fewer guests.

I know for some people these guidelines will not be hard to adhere to, but for others, who have felt very lonely or isolated this year, Christmas was maybe the only thing keeping them going. I have no desire to be the Grinch, but l cannot emphasise enough that what we decide to do as individuals over the next few weeks will impact us all as a society.

There is a lag between people mingling and getting sick. Our numbers have not gone down in the last few weeks as much as I would like to have seen. There are still a lot of people being admitted to hospital and every day we can see hospitals at over-capacity and struggling to cope.

I know some people feel rising hospital numbers doesn’t affect them, or they see none of their family affected and feel that we have cried wolf or overegged the pudding about the risks, but for healthcare staff right across Northern Ireland exhaustion and burnout is real.

The number of people with Covid in hospital will impact the treatment people with other illnesses will receive as nurses and doctors are moved from their main job to support Covid wards. This is where it begins to affect us all.

There is light at the end of the tunnel, a vaccine has been approved for use and more are likely to come through in the next few months. I truly hope that, by Easter next year, we will be in a very different position than we are now. But, in the meantime, as individuals, we can make a difference.Think carefully about how often you go out over the next few weeks, reduce it if you can. Social distance, wash your hands and wear a face covering. Stay at home, protect the NHS.

Dr Tom Black is a general practitioner who works in Derry. He is also NI chairman of the British Medical Association (BMA).