Dr. Michael McBride warns of no 'second chance' with COVID-19 hospitalisations on course to double in nine days

The public health doctor, speaking on Thursday as a suite of new restrictions to curb the spread of the virus in Derry and Strabane was announced, said there was a danger we could be seeing 300 hospitalisations per day within three weeks.

He said the alarming spike in cases locally was down to community transmission and it needs to stop.

“This is not as a result of increased testing it is because the virus is spreading and it is spreading widely.

“The current test positivity rate is sitting around five per cent. If we think back to early July one in 200 tests were positive, that is now about one in 20 tests and on some days one in 12.

“It’s very easy to talk about numbers but we have to remember that behind these numbers are real people with families and friends and relatives,” he said.

First Minister Arlene Foster highlighted the gravity of the situation in Derry and Strabane were the incidence rate per 100,000 people is over 300 and is now doubling every five days.

“In a few short weeks the Derry City and Strabane District Council area has gone from having the lowest number of cases in the United Kingdom to now being amongst the highest,” she said.

She pointed out that the case rate in Derry and Strabane is now more than double that of Belfast and ten times that of some areas.

“The R rate in the Derry and Strabane Council area is calculated as two or higher,” said Mrs. Foster, referring to the number of people a confirmed COVID-19 patient is likely to infect, on average.

The Deputy First Minister Michelle O’Neill said: “Quite clearly there has been a particularly frightening increase in community transmission of COVID-19 in the Derry City and Strabane Council area.

“This district has an incidence rate of over 300 new cases per 100,000 of the population. In comparison, this is more than double the total for the next highest area,” she said.

The First Minister said the high number of cases was now translating into hospital admissions and that unless action is taken this will lead to more deaths in a few weeks.

“I’ve spoken before about the lag period between the identification of positive cases and severe illness requiring hospitalisation which will lead inexorably to more deaths,” she said.

Dr. McBride concurred: “The doubling time, as the First Minister has said, is certainly well less than 14 days and most probably nine days so what we are likely to see, irrespective of the measures that we take today, the decisions that the Executive has made, is that those numbers will double within the next nine days and that if we don’t get control of this virus again those numbers will double again.

“What we do know is that admissions will continue to increase and we estimate that unless we intervene now, unless we all do the right thing, we will be seeing numbers of admission into hospital the same as wave one at our peak of about 300 per day, certainly within the next six weeks and it could be as soon as the next three weeks.”

The First and Deputy First Ministers insisted the new restrictions being imposed in Derry and Strabane do not amount to a lockdown

They also said they understood the frustration among citizens and businesses, many of whom will struggle under the new regulations.

“I recognise that this news will come as a hammer blow to businesses in the north west and ministers have already commenced work on how further support might be provided for those adversely impacted by these measures,” said Mrs. Foster

The First Minister said the Executive is asking for the public’s cooperation in trying to contain the spread of the illness but warned harsher penalties will be forthcoming if people flout the regulations.

“To those who ignore the law and thumb their nose at the Executive and what we are trying to do: tougher enforcement is coming. I want to make that very clear,” she said.

The Deputy First Minister said: “This is an emergency and it requires an emergency response. We are trying to do right by people and we are trying to save lives.”

For Dr. McBride the message is very simple.

“We all need to act now. We all need to reduce our number of social contacts. We need to wash our hands, watch our distance, wear a face covering. We don’t get second chances at this.

"As the First Minister and Deputy First Minister have said we all need to take responsibility now and recommit ourselves to the steps we know will make a difference, that will protect ourselves and will protect our families, those that we love, and actually will protect the wider community,” he said.