Dr. Tom Black warns against complacency as Derry COVID-19 decline slows

Despite significant inroads in reducing the incidence of infection over recent weeks, for the first time since October 17 Derry/Strabane has not recorded consistent daily declines in the seven day measure.

Derry GP Dr. Tom Black has warned against complacency.

“What we have learnt is that we cannot afford to be complacent - the virus is still circulating in the local community and we need to continue to do all we can to slow the spread.

“We have seen how badly our local hospitals have been affected - some are over capacity and some are at capacity. No doctor wants to be in the position of having to choose who takes precedence for a hospital bed and, by restricting our movements and following the guidance, we can prevent that happening.

“We also need to remember that there is a lag between people getting sick and going to hospital so we will still see our hospital numbers going up before they start to fall,” he explained.

Michael McBride hails 'highly effective' effort to drive down COVID-19 in Derry; justifies closure of bars and hairdressers

Yesterday the Chief Medical Officer Dr. Michael McBride praised the ‘highly effective’ effort to drive coronavirus transmission down in Derry and Strabane.

“The interventions we have now put in place have been effective,” he told the Stormont Health Committee.

“We saw the highly effective interventions in Derry City and Strabane and well done to everybody in the community for coming together and achieving that because it was a real effort between community leaders, political leaders, the business sector, working with community networks and we are making very significant progress in pressing down R with the latest restrictions that the Executive has put in place.”

Both men have argued that the ongoing restrictions on the hospitality sector need to continue.

Dr. Black said: “Earlier this week, I said we needed to keep hospitality closed for longer. I know that was hard for people to hear. Many people work in hospitality and uncertainty over employment is a huge source of stress for everyone.

"But we cannot be in a cycle of opening up and closing down. This closure is to give us all some breathing space, to get the numbers back under control.”

Dr. McBride said the closure of pubs, hairdressers and barbers had helped drive down the transmission rate.

“Whilst close personal services may only constitute 0.05 that actually is a very significant percentage contribution to the reduction in the R number because what we are trying to do is get the R number below 1 and keep it as far below one for as long as we possibly can because as long as we keep it below one that means fewer people are being infected and we will see the rates of infection fall.

“We’ll see the rates and numbers of people who are being admitted to our hospitals and our ICUs fall,” he said.

Derry/Strabane COVID-19 rate rises marginally over two consecutive days

Seventy-nine people were being treated as COVID-19 patients in Western Trust hospitals at midnight on Wednesday. The latest update on ICU capacity at Altnagelvin shows ten of eleven beds were occupied by COVID-19 patients with no beds free.

Five ICU patients - all of whom had tested positive for coronavirus - were being ventilated. A breakdown of general occupancy shows Altnagelvin is now 19.81 per cent ‘COVID-19 occupied’, 72.20 per cent ‘other occupied’ with 3.83 per cent capacity left in the system and 4.15 per cent listed as ‘awaiting admission today.’

The case rate in Derry/Strabane remains the second highest in the north. While there has been a rapid drop over the past number of weeks this has now slowed.

Between October 29 and November 4, the last weekly period examined, for example, 455 people tested positive in the Derry and Strabane area, giving a case rate per 100,000 of 302.

This seven day figure was up for the second day running on Thursday. There were 450 cases between October 27 and November 2, giving a rate of 298.7, and there were 452 cases between October 28 and November 3, giving a rate of 300.