Professor Ian Young says third surge modelling has not yet taken account of 70% more transmissible mutant COVID-19 strain

Prof. Young said the modelling being used to forecast the progress of the pandemic here so far has not factored the new B.1.1.7 variant of SARS-CoV-2 which scientists believe could be up to 70 per cent more transmissible than earlier versions.

"At the moment we don't believe that new variant is making a significant impact on transmission of the virus so at present we haven't needed to include any separate allowance for new variant.

"Now that is something that has the potential to change quite quickly and whenever we provide the modelling we have indicated at a note that we haven't taken into account new variant and that if it does become established we will have to provide updated modelling which shows the effect of that," Prof. Young told the Stormont Health Committee.

Over the Christmas period the coronavirus prevalence rate in Derry/Strabane more than trebled although it has fallen slightly this week.

The CSA said he believed this was a consequence of the easing of restrictions before and over Christmas and that it was not due to B.1.1.7.

He remarked: "We have seen a fairly dramatic increase in terms of transmission of the virus since the Christmas period. The average number of cases per day has risen to around 1,800 and that's been associated with a significant increase in the percentage of positive tests which is now over 20 per cent.

"The value of R has risen to close to 1.8. What we have seen is very much in line with the modelling which was done before Christmas and reflects the impact of the two weeks of relaxation in restrictions which occurred before Christmas and the intergenerational mixing that occurred at the Christmas period."

This, he said, was now translating into increased hospitalisations across the health service in the north.

"Within the last few days the increase in cases has begun to feed through to increased pressure on our hospitals. The number of admissions is rising as is bed occupancy and the number of COVID-19 patients requiring critical care treatment," said Prof. Young.

He said he hoped the lockdown that kicked in on Boxing Day will start reaping benefits by the end of this week, however, he warned that due to the lag period between infection, hospitalisation and critical illness the local health service will remain under severe pressure for the rest of this month.

He said he did not expect the third wave of COVID-19 to peak in local hospitals until the end of January.

"We hope to see the impact of the restrictions that have been in place since December 26 towards the end of this week in terms of a reduction in R and hopefully case numbers begin to stabilise and fall.

"However, unfortunately it's likely that hospital admissions and numbers of patients requiring hospital treatment will continue to rise and that the inpatient numbers will not peak until some time in the last two weeks of January.

"The impact of the further restrictions that the Executive have decided on will not be to reduce the peak that is reached at present because that peak will be a consequences of the relaxations around Christmas but it should help to ensure that the number of cases and the subsequent pressures on the hospital system decrease more rapidly than they otherwise would have done," he stated.

He put the current surge down to contact patterns and mixing before Christmas and said any impact of the new variant is 'likely to be relatively small'.

"Our view was that prior to Christmas it was clear that new variant was almost certainly circulating within NI. Again we felt there's a relatively small minority of cases.

"Obviously the position with new variant in terms of the rest of the Common Travel Area (CTA) has been variable so we know that new variable has become the dominant strain in the south east of England and is likely to be present and circulating at variable levels throughout England and indeed in Scotland and Wales.

"Our colleagues in the Republic of Ireland also advise us that they believe new variant is circulating there. I think that is almost inevitable given that we know it has been present since at least September in terms of the UK and the large volumes of traffic between the various countries in the CTA," he said..