N.I. No Deal Brexit will put 'at least 40,000' local jobs at risk claims civil service

The Northern Ireland Civil Service (N.I.C.S.) predicts "at least 40,000" jobs would be at risk if the United Kingdom leaves the European Union with a 'No Deal' Brexit.

The report, which was published on Wednesday July 7, 2019, is a summary of how N.I.C.S. think a 'No Deal' Brexit might impact upon Northern Ireland.

"‘No deal’ could lead to a sharp increase in unemployment, with at least 40,000 jobs at risk, based on E.U. export exposure," reads the report.

The report spells out how the N.I.C.S. believe a 'No Deal' Brexit "would have a profound and long-lasting impact on N.I.’s economy and society".

A 'No Deal' Brexit will impact upon export tariffs to and from the E.U. which could result in a 11 per cent reduction in exports to the Republic of Ireland and a further 19 per cent reduction if non-tariff barriers were introduced.

"This equates to a decline of between £100m to £180m in N.I.’s exports to Ireland," reads the report.

The report also explains how Northern Ireland's agri-food sector would be exposed in 'No Deal' Brexit.

Specifically, the report explains how Northern Ireland beef farmers would be at "acute risk" in the event of a 'No Deal' Brexit.

The report said farmers in Northern Ireland would struggle to compete with agri-food producers from outside the E.U. where the price of commodities e.g. beef, is much lower than local products.

The report also includes details on Northern Ireland's service industry which could see a 14.5 per cent rise in the cost exporting to the Republic of Ireland.

The Information and Communication Technologies (I.C.T.) sector could see the cost of doing business rise by a considerable 24 per cent.

The service economy would ultimately lose £120m in revenue in the event of a 'No Deal' Brexit, according to the report.

Organised Crime

In the event of a 'No Deal' Brexit, Northern Ireland could see an increase in smuggling and over time could have a detrimental effect on "the culture of lawfulness in Northern Ireland".

The report concedes that some products originating from Northern Ireland could mean a reduction in cost for consumers but was quick to add the caveat that there are more items on sale in our supermarkets from outside Northern Ireland than there are from within Northern Ireland - this could mean that due to a further depreciation in the value of sterling the cost of consumer spending would increase which in turn would impact upon the growth of the local economy.