Coronavirus: Robin Swann expects first COVID-19 peak between April 6 and April 20 and warns of 3,000 deaths over 20 weeks in 'reasonable worst case scenario'

Mr. Swann outlined on Wednesday the key findings of an expert modelling study, which will inform intensive hospital planning for the forthcoming surge in COVID-19 cases.

He said the study outlined a 'reasonable worst case scenario' based on a number of assumptions including social distancing measures producing 'a 66% reduction in contacts outside the home and workplace'.

Seventy-per cent of symptomatic cases adhering to case isolation was also built into the model.

The modelling team’s best judgement is that this would lead to a peak number of 180 Covid-19 patients requiring ventilation and critical care beds during the first wave of the epidemic. The peak number of Covid-19 hospital admissions would be 500 per week.

Under this reasonable worst case scenario, the projected number of cumulative Covid-19 deaths in the north over 20 weeks of the epidemic would be 3,000.

The model suggests a peak of the first wave of the epidemic between April 6 and April 20.

The minister reiterated the need for people to rigidly adhere to social distancing guidelines to reduce the spread of infection and save lives.

He also warned that the absence of a vaccine means we will have to plan for a potential second wave of COVID-19 cases later in the year.

He said: "The research indicates that our health service would have a realistic prospect of coping in this initial period if a sufficient proportion of the population adhere to the social distancing and self-isolation measures.

“However, it is important that this is considered in context, and I would emphasise that it provides no grounds whatsoever for dropping our guard. On the contrary, the projections underline that the continuation of rigorous social distancing will save many lives and protect our health service from collapse.

“Even then, a reasonable worst case scenario would involve significant loss of life In Northern Ireland.

“In addition, the absence of a vaccine means we will have to plan for a potential second wave of COVID-19 cases later in the year.”