Executive COVID-19 lockdown recovery plan: Five steps for a return to a new normal for Derry

All of the above activities could be possible when the north moves to Step 1 of a five-stage plan for slowly moving out of lockdown that was announced by the Executive on Tuesday.Some people may also be allowed to return to their workplace on a phased basis although schools will remain closed during Step 1.

Announcing the road map First Minister Arlene Foster and Deputy First Minister Michelle O'Neill did not give a timeline for implementation but provided details of the step changes proposed for various sectors.

They said steps would not necessarily apply at the same time for the different sectors and would have to take account of the complexity and adaptability of each environment.

People in the city will not be able to get their hair cut by a professional tradesperson or watch competitive sports with limited spectator numbers until Step 4 of the plan.

Schools will also expand provision to accommodate all pupils on a part time basis at this stage.

However a full return to workplaces will not take place until Step 5.

And restaurants, cafés and pubs will have to wait until the same stage before they are allowed to re-open.

The Executive said that its collective decision to move through the phases would be based on the most up-to-date scientific evidence; the ability of the health service to cope; and the wider impacts on our health, society and the economy.

Key in this will be keeping the effective reproductive number (the 'R' number) - a measure of how many new people are being infected by an existing case of coronavirus - at or below 1.

Outlining its approach on Tuesday, the Executive said: "As of May 10, in Northern Ireland, 33,440 individuals have been tested for Coronavirus; there have been 4,149 laboratory-confirmed cases and 438 deaths have been reported. Overall case numbers are continuing to rise but at a slower rate than before.

"At the time of the first review of the restrictions, modelling had indicated that the peak of the first wave of the pandemic in Northern Ireland would be between 6 and 20 April 2020.

"It is now clear that the peak for hospital admissions and ICU occupancy occurred during the first part of this period, and that there has subsequently been a gradual decline in both, reflecting a reduction in transmission of the virus here and progression of the epidemic.

"It is currently unclear how long those who have recovered from coronavirus will retain immunity. Furthermore, at present, best estimates suggest that less than 5% of our population are likely to have had the infection and recovered, which is not a sufficiently high level of population immunity to confer protection from further spread of the virus."

The Executive said progression through the phases would be a slow process and keeping the R number down was paramount.

"Following any changes, it will take at least 2-3 weeks for the new value of R to become apparent with confidence, although it may be possible to estimate the effect of changes more rapidly through modelling," it said.

Below are listed the steps to recovery for the various sectors under the new road map.

STEP 1

Family and Community: Groups of 4 – 6 people who do not share a household can meet outdoors maintaining social distancing. With the

exception of people who are shielding, visits to immediate family allowed indoors where social distancing is possible. Drive through church

services and churches open for private prayer with appropriate social distancing and cleaning of shared contact hard surfaces.

Work: Encouragement to those unable to work from home to return to workplace on phased basis subject to legal requirements and best practice arrangements being in place.

Education: No change from current position. Schools are closed except to accommodate vulnerable pupils and the children of key workers. Measures are in place to support remote learning and to provide outreach services to vulnerable children and special needs pupils.

Sport, cultural and leisure activities: Outdoor spaces and public sport amenities to open. Can undertake for example, walking, running, cycling, some water activities, golf, tennis. Drive through cinema.

Travel: No change from current position. Public transport will operate with limited capacity to allow for social distancing. Passengers recommended to wear face coverings and to avoid travel on busy routes/during busy periods. Enhanced cleaning regimes in place and staff on buses and trains issued with PPE in line with PHA guidance. People to be encouraged to walk and cycle for short journeys where possible.

Retail: Large outdoor based retail can open (eg garden centres - though associated cafes and restaurants only able to offer takeaway/collection).

STEP 2

Family and Community: Groups of up to 10 can meet outdoors.

Work: No change from Step 1.

Education: In addition, subject to risk assessment and adhering to maximum capacities, provision expanded to cover wider definition of key workers as workplace activity gradually increases.

Sport, cultural and leisure activities: Resumption of, for example, team sports training on a non-contact basis in small groups. Selected libraries open, restricted services. Open air museums re-open.

Travel: Public transport continues to operate but will face challenges in meeting increased demand, especially on peak services, as social distancing requirements remain in place. People to be encouraged to walk and cycle for short journeys where possible.

Retail: Non-food retail can open where numbers limited and social distancing and other mitigating measures in place as per risk assessment.

STEP 3

Family and Community: Gatherings can accommodate up to 30 people while maintaining social distancing.

Work: Phased return to office and onsite working subject to risk assessment. Work that can be done from home should be done from home.

Education: In addition, schools expand provision to accommodate a number of priority cohorts on a part time basis with a blended learning approach involving a combination of in-school and remote learning.

Sport, cultural and leisure activities: Resumption of, for example, team sports training on a non-contact basis. Museums and galleries open. Libraries open. Concert and theatre rehearsals resume.

Travel: No change from Step 2.

Retail: No change from Step 2.

STEP 4

Family and Community: A wider range of gatherings permitted including church services subject to social distancing and other suitable mitigations, such as cleaning of hard surfaces.

Work: No change from Step 3.

Education: In addition, schools expand provision to accommodate all pupils on a part time basis with a blended learning approach involving a combination of in school and remote learning.

Sport, cultural and leisure activities: Resumption of, for example, competitive sport ‘behind closed doors’ or with limitations on the number of spectators. Leisure centres and other indoor leisure facilities open. Outdoor concerts on restricted basis.

Travel: Public transport continues to operate, but subject to ongoing risk assessment. Demand on peak services, particularly within urban areas likely to increase. Reducing and staggering demand through continued home working and staggered start times for businesses would assist as social distancing requirements remain in place. People to be encouraged to walk and cycle for short journeys where possible.

Retail: Other ‘contact’ retail (hairdressers, fitness studios, tattoo/piercing) can open subject to mitigations following risk assessment.

STEP 5

Family and Community: Can meet in extended groups subject to social distancing or other suitable mitigations.

Work: All able to return to work subject to mitigations. Remote working still strongly encouraged and maintained where possible.

Education: In addition, subject to medical and scientific advice, expand early year school provision to full time basis.

Sport, cultural and leisure activities: Resumption of close physical contact sports. Return to competitive sport and full use of sporting facilities. Spectators to attend live events on restricted basis. Nightclubs, concerts open on a limited basis.

Travel: Public transport operating a full service but subject to ongoing risk assessment. Message about walking and cycling continues to be reinforced.

Retail: Hospitality retail (restaurants, cafes, pubs) can open subject to risk assessment, on a limited basis to start with.