Tiernan Lynch encouraged by Derry City stats
TIERNAN Lynch can take confidence from Derry City's data analysis, which may not provide comfort to fans but suggests things are better than they seem at the Brandywell club.
When discussing Derry's double-header draws against Bohs and Galway, Lynch pointed out his team's expected goals data (xG), expected goals against (xGA), and passes per defensive action (PPDA), all compiled by the club's stats gurus.
The City boss reckons statistics provide a more objective understanding of the team's performances rather than a sequence of results which see them midtable.
The Candy Stripes have drawn six of their last nine matches, conceded 11 goals in their last 10 games and currently sit 12 points off the top - the only metric by which the team is being judged by its supporters who had hoped for a title challenge.
However, despite just three clean sheets in 15 matches, Lynch focuses on mathematical models suggesting his team is improving, hinting that their fortunes could soon change.
He points out that opposition teams aren't creating nearly enough high quality chances to warrant the amount of goals Derry is conceding.
An own goal gave Galway United a 1-0 lead at Celtic Park last Monday night and the last time Derry met Drogheda United, two spectacular long-distance strikes earned the Boynesiders a point.
"It's really frustrating," he said. "Again, it's most frustrating for the players. Our xGA [expected goals against], shots against and our box entries against and all that goes with it, are actually very low. Teams just aren't having to work too hard to score against us which is frustrating for us.
"Even in the Bohs game, I think they had two shots on target and scored one. Galway the other night, they had two shots on target and scored one. It's frustrating for us.
"What we need to do is cut that out and start scoring more goals. I know every manager is saying the same thing but I think we have the ability and talent to do it. So it's now a matter of actually doing it."
What xG numbers do not do, however, is explain why things are going well or badly. Lynch assures fans the coaching staff has been working hard to improve performances in both boxes.
"That's definitely something we're working really hard on. The boys are very open to this. They want to get better at this and if we can start closing the back door it will give us a better platform for going on to win games rather than drawing them.
"The glass is always half full with me," he added. "There's no doubt there's frustration there. I'm disappointed and frustrated with the goals we're conceding. We need to start making teams work much harder to score against us.
"Our xG is good, our box entries are good. I think we probably need to be a bit more clinical in front of goal. There's lots of really good things that are going on.”
A shout from a Derry fan behind the dugouts at Celtic Park on Monday ordering the home team to 'let the handbrake off,' was a criticism Lynch agreed with.
The Brandywell boss is confident he has the attacking talent in his team to 'light the place up' and hopes they can prove it against Drogheda on Friday night.
"I think we're a very talented team and there are lots of players out there that can light the place up. It's now just about going and doing it and having the belief in themselves and that bravery not to make mistakes.
"If you look at our workrate over the last number of games, it's through the roof. Our PPDA is absolutely through the roof. So the work ethic is there but there's wee tweaks where we need to get better.
"I heard someone in the crowd shouting about taking the handbrake off and I think that sums it up brilliantly. We need to take the handbrake off and trust each other a little bit more. We have to play on the front foot.
"The work ethic is through the roof. The data is there to prove that. So it's not about work ethic. They just need to start get into the final third more. Take chances one end and cutting chances out the other end."