The coming weeks will bring major political events that could significantly impact Northern Ireland’s trading relationships with the UK, EU and beyond. In just 10 days this July, we may see yet another shift in how we do business across these islands and the wider world.

On July 1, Phase 3 of the NI Retail Movement Scheme (NIRMS) begins. This will require new labelling—marked ‘Not for EU’—on items like fresh, frozen and processed fish, pet food, sealed fruit and vegetables, and other animal products moving from Great Britain to Northern Ireland. Retailers and suppliers have already invested heavily in adjusting logistics, packaging and IT systems. It remains to be seen how these changes will affect supply chains, especially if some suppliers deem it economically unviable to continue serving Northern Ireland.

Meanwhile, Lord Murphy, former Secretary of State for NI, has been appointed by the UK Government to review the Windsor Framework and its impact on the region’s social, economic and political life. He has consulted widely, including with the Federation of Small Businesses, and is due to report by July 9.

As I write, we also await crucial updates on tariffs from the US and UK. July was expected to mark the end of a 90-day pause on tariffs announced by President Trump on April 9. While that pause brought relief to global markets, uncertainty remains. Will a new agreement be reached with the EU? If not, Northern Ireland could suffer from retaliatory measures should a trade dispute escalate.

placeholder image — Alan Lowry, FSB's NI Policy Chair.

Tariffs can seriously undermine small businesses, raising costs and reducing competitiveness. It’s vital that the US, UK and EU work together to shield SMEs from harmful trade barriers. NI, with its unique access to both the UK and EU markets, should be able to thrive—not be caught in the crossfire of a trade war.

Ahead of July’s events, a UK-EU summit will take place on May 19 in London. Prime Minister Keir Starmer will host European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen in what could mark a reset in post-Brexit relations. Speculation includes agreements on defence and security, and a possible Sanitary and Phytosanitary (SPS) deal—key for reducing bureaucracy under the Windsor Framework.

Removing trade obstacles is essential for job creation and economic growth. Let’s hope these developments pave the way for more opportunity, not less.