Prof. John McCloskey predicts earthquake toll will climb to 100,000

The leading earthquake specialist said the catastrophic natural disaster was ‘not a surprise’ and told the ‘Journal’ important new research due to be published in a forthcoming edition of ‘Nature’ will cast further light on what happened.

“We have some really important news coming out that is going to be published in ‘Nature’. Once it comes out I'll be able to speak more,” said Prof. McCloskey, who is based at the University of Edinburgh.

The Derry-man will not divulge his findings until the paper is peer-reviewed but stated: “What we have is going to create a lot of interest globally.

"I can tell you that that earthquake was not a surprise. We have got some very clear messages about what it means for future development that will be quite important.”

According to the latest information from the Turkish Ministry of Interior's Disaster and Emergency Management Authority (AFAD) 45,089 people were known to have lost their lives in Turkey alone as of March 1.

Many thousands were also killed in Syria following the series of earthquakes on February 6, although exact figures are difficult to obtain due to the civil war.

Prof. McCloskey said the death toll will climb much higher.

“It will be closer to 100,000 when the dust settles. If we ever know. I don't think we will ever know. The people I know in Turkey are already talking about 70,000 or 80,000,” he said.

The academic explained that the Kahramanmaraş quake was one of the worst on record in an area prone to significant seismic events.

"Southern Turkey and South Eastern Turkey are very densely populated and it was a very bad earthquake. Historically in that area, earthquakes have been usually around magnitude 7 on the Richter scale or generally in the low 7s. This was 7.8. It was nearly 7.9."

Prof. McCloskey pointed out that there is a huge difference in the amount of energy released in a 7 magnitude earthquake on the Richter scale and the one suffered in Turkey and Syria last month.

“It is a logarithmic scale so it goes up by a factor of 30 in terms of energy release for every one order of magnitude so an 8 is 30 times more energy release than a 7 so this is probably ten times worse than we would have expected but those expectations are badly misunderstood.

"We misunderstand some of the physics of the process so it's really important that we understand those things better.”

He explained that the earthquake lasted for about twice the length of time as would have been expected under standard modelling.

"The earthquake was really big for that area, really big. We don’t know of an earthquake as big in the past in that area although the Aleppo earthquake in the 12th century killed 200,000 in a day when the earth's population was a tenth of what it is now I suppose. It is a dangerous area.”

Prof. McCloskey will return to his hometown on Friday where he will receive the prestigious Alumnus Illustrissimus award from the St. Columb’s College Past Pupils’ Union in the City Hotel.

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