Letter from America: Paul McElhinney reflected on the crunch US Presidential Election battle between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump

None more so than this year. Ireland has many long-standing ties with the US where developments have often been impacted by those occupying the Oval Office (notably, Kennedy, Reagan and Clinton).

With the plethora of communications platforms, particularly social media, what happens in Washington DC and the US more generally, can seem to be almost ‘local’.

We have seen how the strongly visual impact of broadcast news anywhere in the world gives it an extra immediacy and familiarity to vast, far-flung audiences.

If one is to believe in the dictum, ‘all politics is local’, then what happens in Butler, Pennsylvania or Chicago, Illinois starts to compete with events in, for example, Derry or Dungiven for local attention. The global village is upon us.

Beyond the political and current affairs dimensions, US (and many international) events have entered the realm of entertainment and sensationalism – a factor that has boosted international audiences, particularly since the advent of Donald Trump.

The line between politics and entertainment is narrowing. While helping to boost audiences, it also infantilises them.

Current opinion polls continue to suggest that the Presidential election is too close to call, with tight results expected in the key battleground states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Arizona and Nevada where the election will ultimately be decided.

The candidate who can amass 270 or more votes out of 540 in the Electoral College (not necessarily the candidate who wins a majority of the popular vote) will win the election.

Results in a number of states are certain to be contested by both parties (indeed, Republicans have already issued appeals in some states).

Given that Trump is sure to contest a result that goes against him, the whole process is set to be fraught as we approach the count.

A repeat of January 6, 2021 when rioters stormed the Capitol is widely feared. Pundits are talking of a period of stasis and uncertainty well into late January 2025, by which time the Senate will count and endorse the Electoral College vote total and thus, confirm the Presidential vote.

In the immediate term, developments in the Middle East and aid to Ukraine will hinge greatly on the result. More widely, relations with China, on international trade, on NATO policy and the overall economic and geopolitical role for the US in the future, rely critically on the result.

Irish affairs do not feature among the top priorities of either Presidential campaign, yet, in practice, any new Administration will continue existing support for current efforts to develop further the institutions: in Northern Ireland, North-South and East-West.

A notable political distinction between the US and Britain/Europe is how much more conservative the average US voter is. The policies of many left of centre or liberal parties in Europe, would be uncomfortably ‘liberal’ for most Americans.

Many more voters in the US are in favour of free market economic solutions, in reducing government intervention, lower taxes, in favour of the death penalty and laxer gun control than in most European countries.

Trump taps into many of these conservative ‘acid test’ concerns. While the Harris ticket is decidedly liberal, her policy platform also caters to some conservative stances such as support for Israel and a nuanced gun control policy.

The special tale of Boomhall, three sisters and a trio of Derry weddings

That said, the Democrats continue to identify broadly with the ‘left’ and the Republicans with the ‘right’.

It would be foolish to try and predict the result of such a tightly-contested election. The US has had several tight elections in recent decades.

The 2020 and 2000 elections, as we know, were extremely close. So were 1968 and 1960. Thus, the US is no stranger to cliff-hangers.

With claims being made about the critical (even apocalyptic) nature of this election for the future of the US and its democracy, this one does seem to be unique.

Both candidates are currently neck and neck with the undecided vote narrowing. We know that the key is the battleground states with turnout, registration and ballot issues likely to play influential roles.

There is no guarantee that some incident or development will not appear ‘out of left field’ to affect the course of the campaign between now and November.

How any such event is likely to affect the outcome is purely in the realm of speculation, but its significance cannot be dismissed.

Particular note should be taken of current unfolding events in the Middle East which have proven explosive in domestic US politics in the past.

As far as influencing the eventual outcome, however, both sides are probably better advised to focus on key demographic groups in swing states and on ensuring good turnouts than on less ‘controllable’ factors.

For a campaign that had its fair share of drama earlier in the year (two assassination attempts on Donald Trump and the standing down from the campaign by Joe Biden), recent weeks have seen a strange lull as both sides have consolidated their positions in advance of the final vote. That apparent lull is deceptive and could change at any time. This election will be fought for ‘tooth and nail’ given the high stakes.

The one big imponderable is whether constitutionally-established processes will be allowed to proceed after November 5, or whether we see a repeat of the travesty of January 6, 2021.

Paul McElhinney, October 2024

Paul McElhinney is a full-time writer living in Wexford. He was an official in the Department of the Taoiseach in Dublin in the 1980s, and an oil and gas executive in London and Washington. Since then, he has worked as a consultant, a college lecturer and writer. In September, he visited the US to carry out research on the election. His family has strong links with Derry where he spent many pleasant summers during his youth.

Remembering the benevolent McDevitt family of Boomhall