Opinion: Population decline is a warning - but Derry & Strabane can choose a different future
Recent population projections for Derry and Strabane should concern every one of us.
They show that, despite natural population growth, our district is expected to lose around 3,500 people to outward migration by 2032, resulting in an overall population decline. At the same time, one in five residents will be over the age of 65.
This is not just a set of statistics. It is a warning about the direction of travel for our city and district and about the choices we are making or failing to make. People do not leave places lightly.
They leave when they cannot find secure work, when housing is out of reach, when education pathways are limited, when public services feel stretched, or when they no longer believe the future, here is brighter than elsewhere.
An ageing population is not a problem in itself. Our older residents are central to our communities, our families, and our civic life. The real issue is that we are not retaining enough working-age people or attracting enough new ones to sustain a balanced, thriving local economy.
Without that balance, pressure grows on health services, social care, local businesses, and public finances and the cycle of decline deepens.
This is why simplistic claims that ‘Ireland is full’ or that immigration is the cause of our problems are not just wrong, they are dangerous distractions. The truth is that this region is losing people. We need people. We need skills, energy, enterprise, and contribution.
Scapegoating migrants does nothing to solve housing shortages, low wages, or underinvestment. It simply divides communities that already face shared challenges.
Population trends are not acts of nature. They are shaped by political and policy decisions. If we want young people to stay and to return after studying or working elsewhere, we must create the conditions that make that choice realistic and attractive.
First, housing. Too many young people are locked out of secure, affordable homes. We need a serious increase in social and affordable housing, better use of vacant properties, and planning decisions that prioritise people over speculation. Housing must be seen as essential infrastructure, not a market afterthought.
Second, jobs and skills. Our young people are ambitious, talented, and capable. What they need are pathways from education into good local employment. That means aligning apprenticeships, further and higher education, and reskilling programmes with the real needs of our regional economy, including green industries, digital, health, construction, tourism, and the creative sector.
It also means tackling low pay and precarious work, which drive people away just as surely as unemployment.
Third, migration and inclusion. A fair, welcoming approach to migration is not just morally right it is economically necessary. People who choose to settle here work, start businesses, pay taxes, and enrich our cultural life.
When newcomers are supported to integrate and belong, communities are stronger and more resilient. When they are treated as a problem, everyone loses.
Fourth, the cross-border economy. Derry and Strabane sit at the heart of a unique region, with an invisible border that should be an asset, not a barrier. Our future depends on deeper cross-border collaboration in employment, transport, education, healthcare, and enterprise. Young people already live cross-border lives; our policies must finally catch up with that reality.
Above all, we need a shift in mindset. Managing decline should never be the ambition of any community. We should be planning for growth sustainable, inclusive growth that gives people reasons to stay, return, and put down roots. Derry and Strabane have extraordinary strengths: a young population, a proud history, strong communities, creativity, resilience, and a global diaspora that still feels connected to this place.
The question is whether we are willing to match those strengths with political courage and long-term thinking. Population decline is not inevitable.
It is the result of choices. And that means a different future is possible, if we choose to build it.