10,000 Magee target could be met by 2032 but significant investment of £700m required

The taskforce believes a new expanded campus at Magee will require an investment of approximately £700m but understands that a significant proportion of that is already secured or committed.

It is estimated that up to 40 per cent could come from private sector investment in student accommodation.

The taskforce – set up in March by the Economy Minister Conor Murphy to bring forward an action plan to expand Ulster University’s Magee campus in Derry to 10,000 students as soon as practicable – published its comprehensive 72 page interim report on Wednesday.

Nearly 30 ‘asks’ have been requested of key stakeholders in the Department for the Economy, Ulster University, Derry City and Strabane District Council and the UK and Irish Government among others to try to make good on the commitment that was made in the 2020 New Decade, New Approach (NDNA) agreement and referenced in the ‘Our Plan’ Programme for Government document published on Monday.

Stephen Kelly, Chair of the Magee Taskforce said: “Through this work, the Taskforce can see the pathway for delivery on this significant project.

“Co-design has been central to the development of this report, and it shows that we have gained further commitments from all of the key parties, indicating a real statement of intent.”

“A substantial leap forward has been made. There is now a sense of urgency and a unity of purpose after five years of inertia and delay since the commitment was made in the NDNA agreement. We must maintain the course we are on, however hard, or challenging, it may seem.

“We have also been able to shape the value of this investment and the significance it will have for Derry and the North West cross border city region.

“Although there is still some finessing to be undertaken, the approximate investment from the public and private sector will be almost £700m.

"There is no doubt that this will have massive, direct, indirect and induced benefit for the region, but it will also deliver on key policy priorities on regional balance, good jobs and increasing productivity.

“We now have the commitment, the timeline and the indicative price. Delivery has started and, learning from past failures, we now have the teams, processes and policies in place to make that stick.

“The report published today is an important milestone in the delivery of an expanded Ulster University campus at Magee. The work means we will deliver the promised action plan towards the end of 2024.”

The report itself states that the Taskforce believe it would be possible to deliver the 10,000 student target within eight years.

It is keen, however, ‘to see evidence of financial planning by the Executive for expansion which will be many hundreds of millions of pounds in the next decade’.

"Doing nothing would have meant a timeline that would not achieve 10,000 students, even in decades. However, based on our initial considerations, the Taskforce now estimates that the delivery of 10,000 students will require a capital investment for teaching, staff and research space and could be delivered, if maximum pace is achieved, in 8 years (i.e. by 2032).

"Initial modelling for estate to support 10,000 students indicates a need for an estimated £400m of capital spend to provide the requisite teaching, learning and research space, with around £275m additionally required to support student residential accommodation,” the report states.

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The total student enrolment figure at the Magee College campus for 2023/24 stood at 5,337 and was forecast to rise again to 5,711 in 2024/25, the report states, with Ulster University expecting this to continue to rise to 6,500 as soon as 2026/27.

"Following the funding announcement in July 2024, the University has now confirmed that this 6,500 projection has now been updated to 7,000 students by 2028/29,” the report advises.

The Taskforce point to a projected increase in locally driven demand for third level places.

"There will be a 10 per cent growth in the number of Year 14 school leavers in NI in the period between 2022/23 and 2028/29. The Year 14 total population is projected to rise from 13,812 (2022/23) to a peak of 15,311 (2028/29); before reducing to 14,725 by 2031/32,” it states.

It also believes increasing numbers of students from the rest of Ireland are likely to seek places outside their own jurisdiction.

However, changes to the UK Student Visa system in January 2024 have had a direct impact on the number of international students seeking places in Derry.

Ulster University reports that in 2023/24, new international student enrolments have decreased by over 35 per cent, mainly driven by a drop in new enrolments in January 2024.

"This is having a detrimental impact on the Derry-Londonderry campus, where 75 per cent of the University’s postgraduate population is made up of international students,” the report states.

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A putative natural ceiling to growth is also addressed by the report. Ulster University informed the Taskforce that it believed ‘intake in Derry-Londonderry will find a natural market-share limit at around 7,200 students, which takes account of demographic growth and the University’s actions to maximise recruitment to that campus’.

But the Taskforce does ‘not accept the inevitability of a ceiling’ and recommends the Maximum Student Number (MaSN) cap which restricts the total number of full-time undergraduate students from the island at institutions in the North be lifted.

The MaSN cap is a means of financial control imposed by the Executive to stop overspending on student and teaching costs.

"Importantly, the University’s 7,200 figure assumes, and requires, a change in public policy that sees an uplift of the MaSN cap which provides for the campus in DerryLondonderry in order to fully utilise an increased pipeline of potential students.

"The Taskforce does not accept the inevitability of a ceiling. Indeed, in its discussions it recognises that growth beyond 10,000 students is a legitimate longer-term aspiration, even if it postdates the work to which it is committed,” the report observes.

The interim report acknowledges that lifting the cap to facilitate student growth at Magee will carry additional recurring financial costs that will have to be met. Increasing the funding burden on students has been ruled out.

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The Taskforce report ask the Department for the Economy to consider either direct, recurring financial support from the Department beginning at £4m plus and rising to approximately £15m per annum; up to £15m per annum from a combination of Department for the Economy, Department of Health (recognising the importance of Magee’s provision to Western Health and Social Care Trust’s and the Irish Government to support undergraduate medical school growth; removing students from the Republic of Ireland from the MaSN count at Magee, thereby releasing c1,000 MaSN places for NI students; and reducing the number of students who leave NI for study, thereby driving demand locally and releasing funds for increased student population in NI.

The report acknowledges significant challenges on the road to delivering 10,000 students. These include the requirement for sustainable recurrent funding, considerable capital funding for teaching accommodation, a significant increase in student living accommodation, enhanced transport links, and a range of city infrastructural preparations, including the provision of adequate social services locally.

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