Magee should be targeting 20,000 students, economist John Daly tells ‘strengthening NW’ conference

Mr. Daly said infrastructural deficits, including in higher education, must be addressed if Derry’s economic and societal underperformance is to be improved.

"Derry City is the second largest city in NI, one of the largest agglomerations on the island of Ireland; it should not be performing in the manner that it is. It is clear that infrastructural deficits are undermining the performance of this area,” he said.

The leading economist was speaking during a 'Time to Strengthen the Regional Impact of Greater North-West' conference organised by the John and Pat Hume Foundation and the Royal Irish Academy at Magee College on Thursday.

“Magee should be pushing for, never mind 10,000 students, it should be above the 20,000 student mark. There is no doubt about it,” he added.

Mr. Daly acknowledged reaching such a target would not be achievable overnight.

"There will be a lot of coordination and planning required in that and I think there is a sincerity and I think Ulster University is committing to expand the numbers and obviously, we have seen the latest figures year-on-year it has expanded, but I think there is no doubt groups like, this and discussions like this, is what has ignited that conversation and commitment,” he said.

Mr. Daly was speaking after delivering a striking paper on ‘The Facts of Regional Imbalance’ that laid bare the infrastructural deficits suffered by Derry and Donegal.

“Failure to invest in infrastructure access over time will undermine productivity levels, will undermine regional export capabilities, all of which undermines economic development trends, which ultimately affects people's disposable incomes, which is the purpose of what an entire economy should be,” he observed.

Examining air links to the north west, he reported: “Passenger numbers flowing in and out of CoDA have been progressively declining over time. In relatively recent times it peaked at just over 400,000 passengers in 2012.

“It is now currently standing at just over 166,000 as of 2023.”

He noted how in 2012 CoDA accounted for 5.9% of all passengers flowing in and out of NI but that his has ‘progressively declined over time’ to 2.4% in 2023.

“This is a major issue because ultimately under-utilisation of this kind of infrastructure asset is going to affect the ability of the regions to grow effectively considering the importance of airport infrastructure, not just facilitating tourism but more importantly, I suppose, facilitating international trade, which is a key component of economic development,” he remarked.

Mr. Daly referred to the All-Island Strategic Rail Review and several recommendations that would go some way towards addressing the rail deficit in the north and western region including: Derry to Portadown, estimated cost €2.2-3.4bn; Derry to Letterkenny, €200-300m; Mullingar to Portadown, €1.1-1.6bn; Portarlington to Galway €800m-1.3bn; and Athenry to Claremorris €400m-600m.

He said the overall projected cost of these projects was realistic.

“It's somewhere in the range of €4-€7bn in current prices as of 2021 and that seems quite a realistic target in the long term of delivering this kind of infrastructure,” he said.

Derry and Donegal rail links estimated £2.1-£3.3bn, could start 2030-40, be finished 2040-50

But he warned that even if all the listed projects were realised gaps would remain.

"As quite rightly noted by rail groups like Into the West Derry City would be the only city on the island of Ireland that would have no 200kilometre per hour rail line,” attendees were told.

A stark deficit in ‘motorway’ and ‘A road’ infrastructure is another problem. Mr. Daly pointed out that in 2021 4.6 per cent of road (kilometres) in the Derry and Strabane Local Government District was of ‘A road’ standard. This was the lowest percentage in the North where the average is 9.4 per cent.

“One of the most sizeable infrastructural deficits that Derry and Donegal, and the North West City region with the wider north and west region of the island of Ireland, suffers from is in the area of higher educational infrastructure,” he said.

Citing figures from latest censuses he showed Limerick with a population of 102,287 had 30,069 full time and part time enrolments in Higher Education Institutes in 2021/22; Galway, population 85,910, had 26,996; and Letterkenny, population 22,549, had 3,993.

Derry, by comparison, with a population of 108,227 had 4,208 students in 2021/22, although this figure rose to 5,243 in 2022/23.

“It very much shows the historical underinvestment in higher educational infrastructure in the North West City Region,” Mr. Daly observed.

Investment in higher education is also lagging in the northern and western regions of the Republic of Ireland.

The state average for general capital funding per undergraduate student enrolled at higher level over the 2012-22 period was €331.

In the Northern and Western area the figure was only €238.

Mr. Daly outlined how population growth in Derry/Strabane over the 2011-2021 period stood at only 2.1%, the second lowest in the north.

Call for €570m for north and west to boost projects including Donegal/Derry road and rail and Magee expansion

Over the same period Donegal posted the lowest population growth in RoI at 3.7%.

Mr. Daly stated: “Population growth has been predominantly high on the eastern side of NI with below average and very low population growth rates over this decades as you can see in Derry and Strabane."

He noted that population growth has been generally concentrated around Belfast suggesting ‘an element of urban sprawl’.

A similar pattern is repeated in Dublin and to a lesser extent Cork.

“The most clear consequence of infrastructure deficits is that it is undermining the ability of the regional economies to generate high levels of disposable income per head of population.

“Disposable income per head of population effectively shows the income in people's wallets after taxation and social contributions and is essentially the key economic metric of the economic well-being of a region,” he said.

He showed that in 2021 Derry posted the lowest disposable income per capita in the North at £16,572 (NI average £17,636) and Donegal the lowest in the South at €18,579 (RoI average €24,855).

“It is quite surprising when you look from the outside looking in that Derry City, the second largest city in NI, one of the largest agglomerations on the island of Ireland, one of the largest cities on the island of Ireland has the lowest level of disposable income per head of population out of the LGDs in NI.”

Donegal population rose by just 5%, low natural population increase and low migration